Anxin strategy: the market environment 北京养生 is still positive, but it needs to pay attention to return to the fundamentals
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Source: Anson Securities Research ■ Investment Highlights: We maintain our annual report judgments. In the medium and long term, A shares are in a mature position.
We believe that the core logic of mature cattle is the direction of China’s economic development. Therefore, the main industry lines of the corresponding A-share market are technology, medicine and consumption. This medium-to-long-term mainline will not easily change and should not be switched lightly.
Among them, the current prosperity of different sub-sectors, medium-term space, estimates, policy guidelines, capital attributes and risks affect the leading sectors in different stages, and other sectors will follow the overall growth in the bull market. If you want to emphasize style switching, you need macroeconomicsGreat changes have taken place in the financial environment.
We also pointed out in the annual report “A shares stand and grasp mature cows” that this year’s manufacturing industry strives to stabilize and recover. There are some varieties of supply and demand relations and economic changes in the economic structure (such as some chemical machinery non-ferrous metals, etc.), but the economy as a wholeSupply-demand structure reliability replication 2016 (supply-side reform + new cycle of real estate investment started).
Therefore, the opportunities here are not big opportunities, they are limited to structural ones.
We believe that some changes in the style of the market in the fourth quarter of 2014 require significant changes in the top-down macro environment, such as a significant decline in interest rates and deterioration of asset shortages, so a large amount of low-risk capital has entered the market and has become a phased incremental fund.The mainstream; or the environment remains the same, the main line direction is full of bubbles, that is, both the first-line and second-line and the small and medium-sized markets have lost their attractiveness, otherwise the other auxiliary lines are more likely to be supplementary.
In general, we still don’t see the conditions for a more comprehensive style shift in the market.
In the short term, we think that market risk appetite may gradually cool down, but the current overall economy is still stable, the financial environment is generally loose, and the spring market will continue further.
The focus of the market will return to fundamentals, especially the quarterly report.
It is expected that the growth sector will still show an upward trend in the first quarter. At the same time, under the expected recovery of the manufacturing industry, at the low inventory level, there will also be structural upswing opportunities in the sectors that benefit from the improvement of fundamental margin support, such as some machinery, chemicals, nonferrous metals, etc.
Although the overall economic outlook is not necessarily great, 北京夜网 there will also be opportunities for significant improvements in the structure, especially the company’s individual stocks. Of course, the sustainability and medium-term space of its sector may still be slightly inferior to the mainline sector.
Recent industry focus: electronics, new energy vehicles, media, computers, medicine, securities companies, home appliances, machinery, chemicals, nonferrous metals, etc. Themes suggest to pay attention to the Tesla industry chain, science and technology board.
■ Risk Warning: 1.
Inflation exceeded expectations, 2.
Low global economic expectations, 3.
US stocks declined significantly and so on.
Mr. Ronca-Beijing Insurance Sales Manager Cui Manager Cao Ban-Beijing-Gold Sales Manager Specialist Office => Mingyi-Institute sumenvDessence